Expectation: the retirement spending conundrum
Clients’ spending plans are a pivotal input to retirement planning, but rarely clear. We explore why estimates miss the mark and how advisers turn uncertainty into workable strategies.
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Recent insight from BNY Investments
A broader foundation for earnings growth
Although companies benefiting most directly from AI-related capital spending are the main drivers of higher earnings, strength is no longer confined to that group. Earnings across the broader market remain solid and are expected to grow more than 10% this year and next, suggesting the risk of concentrated market leadership may not be founded.
3 ways to respond when inflation bites
A surge in energy prices pushed the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading above forecasts, reinforcing the case that inflation could remain higher for longer. Higher energy prices have also increased market volatility and uncertainty around the path of interest rates.
Steady hiring, fewer layoffs
May’s jobs report showed a labor market that is improving, with payroll growth exceeding expectations and layoffs down sharply from last year. Steady hiring and fewer layoffs should continue to support consumer spending and U.S. economic growth.
Is the job market stabilizing?
After sluggish job growth in 2025, investors are looking for signs that the labor market may be stabilizing. With consumer spending driving 70% of economic activity, an improving labor market is essential to sustaining economic growth.
Building resilience through global short-dated high yield strategies
Insight Investment sees resilience in the global short-dated high yield bond market. Here’s why.
Lonza and the next wave of healthcare solutions
Walter Scott’s John Rae assesses outsourced drugs manufacturer Lonza’s role in the healthcare ecosystem.
Global momentum in manufacturing
April PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indices) point to a meaningful improvement in global manufacturing momentum, with the U.S., Eurozone and Japan all posting stronger-than-expected and firmly expansionary results.
The Client Landscape – Navigating Uncertainty, Anxiety and Change
The retirement landscape is evolving rapidly. While today’s retirees may appear much the same as before, their financial resources and confidence are shifting significantly. As reliance on traditional, secure income sources like defined benefit schemes and personal pensions declines, responsibility increasingly falls on individuals to manage their own retirement outcomes. This shift presents new challenges—and opportunities—for financial advisers.
Tracking the margin uptrend
Rising margin expectations continue to support equities, underscoring the resilience of corporate profitability in the face of last year’s tariffs and this year’s Middle East war. The U.S. remains especially strong compared to peers, though first quarter earnings will be an important test.
Time to buy tech?
Technology valuations have meaningfully declined over the past year, but the sector continues to stand out for its strong earnings growth and relative resilience. While near-term uncertainty remains, tech still appears well positioned as a key driver of broader market growth.
3 equity market observations
Murdo MacLean shares Walter Scott’s perspective on three headwinds facing equity markets.
3 Ways to rethink portfolios in today’s volatile markets
Volatility has picked up as the conflict in the Middle East enters its second month. Higher oil prices are increasing inflation uncertainty and raising questions about global growth.
Vantage Point: Pressure Points Q2 2026
Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group
Job market hanging in there
Recent jobless claims data point to a resilient U.S. labor market, with both initial and continuing claims remaining low and signaling that unemployment is still contained. Although job growth has softened and remains subdued, March’s job growth of 178,000, the highest since 2024, is encouraging. Our constructive outlook still holds despite continued uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East.
Markets since Iran conflict
Markets are reacting to the Middle East conflict with sharp moves across asset classes, signaling broad risk repricing and shifting safe?haven behavior. While volatility is elevated, fundamentals like earnings growth continue to support our constructive outlook.
Transforming Retirement Planning
Retirement planning in the UK has never stood still, but the ground is shifting more quickly and more meaningfully than many clients – and some firms – might expect.
Signals from spreads
Credit spreads have risen yet remain historically low, reinforcing our view that the oil shock is likely temporary — not a driver of long-term growth concerns.
Human first, tech second: Rethinking AI in retirement advice
With artificial intelligence evolving at pace, is it finally ready to enhance how advisers plan, test and deliver retirement strategies?
Building a strong retirement income
Market shifts, rising risks and AI-driven volatility are challenging retirement income stability. BNY Investments Newton multi-asset portfolio manager Paul Byrne discusses why dynamic risk management and active multi-asset strategies are essential for steadying the ship.
Smart strategies for outperformance in fixed income
Insight Investment outlines seven strategies skilled active managers can use when seeking to generate excess returns relative to benchmarks.
FutureLegacy: Aligning outcomes with expectations
Paul Byrne, BNY Investments Newton Portfolio Manager and Quantitative Analyst, outlines how BNY’s FutureLegacy risk-targeted multi-asset funds aim to help investors stay aligned with their retirement goals in uncertain markets.
The 3 aspects of quality
Walter Scott identifies quality companies using three key factors. Client investment manager Murdo MacLean explains why each matters.
Global Credit: 10 years of stability and consistency
The BNY Mellon Global Credit Fund celebrates 10 years. Adam Whiteley, head of global credit at Insight Investment, reflects on the Fund’s success, key active calls, the case for global credit today and future positioning.
Returns after oil spikes
The Strait of Hormuz, which moves about 20% of global oil, has seen many ships that normally travel through it curtail their activity. Consequently, WTI oil was up over 36% in the five days after the oil supply shock began.
Impact of geopolitics over time?
Tensions between the U.S./Israel and Iran have recently boiled over into a military conflict, which has given many investors the jitters. However, our research shows that equity market pullbacks resulting from geopolitical events are often short lived with the S&P 500 typically higher in the months following these events.
Differentiate to diversify
Tech’s shine is fading, making way for differentiated portfolios to flourish, says BNY Investments Newton global equity income portfolio manager, Jon Bell.
Iran Conflict: Market Implications
The U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, resulting in the elimination of Iran’s leadership, is a serious development for regional political and global energy price stability as it could set off moderate to material demand-supply imbalances.
SCOTUS tariff decision may lift risk assets
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) announced in a 6-3 ruling that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded the powers of the president.
What’s going on with software?
Walter Scott has been taking a close look at software companies. Client investment manager George Dent explains why.
Behind the numbers: Q4 GDP
Gross domestic product undershot expectations last quarter, but the shortfall appears driven more by the temporary government shutdown than broad-based weakness. Consumer demand remains resilient, and with supportive fiscal policy, easing financial conditions and a steady labor market, the outlook points to a modest acceleration in economic activity this year.
Sovereign debt: developed markets feel the weight
Advanced economies are grappling with historically high levels of sovereign debt.
AI adoption: the macro shock of the decade
In a short period, AI has advanced from novelty to an integral part of workflows, often matching or surpassing human performance in areas such as image classification, algorithm design, and data analysis.
The U.S. dollar: from privilege to pressure
Today’s global economy is defined by a significant imbalance — the U.S.’ large, persistent trade deficit. Expectations for continued U.S. economic strength, which keeps domestic consumption elevated and attracts foreign capital, is the primary reason for the imbalance.
The Active Volatility Imperative: Building Resilience in Multi-Asset Portfolios
BNY Investments Newton Portfolio Manager and Quantitative Analyst Paul Byrne walks through why active volatility management is essential for positioning in the new risk reality.
The role of volatility-managed funds in client portfolios: beyond model portfolios
BNY Investments Newton Portfolio Manager and Quantitative Analyst Paul Byrne explores how active, volatility-managed portfolios can help investors navigate today’s market risks.
Multi-asset: 6 for 2026 outlook
Paul Flood, Head of Mixed Assets Investment at BNY Investments Newton, examines six prospective investment catalysts for 2026 and underscores the significance of diversification across asset classes, regions, and sectors.
Real Return: 6 for 2026 outlook
Ella Hoxha, Co-head of BNY Investments Newton’s Real Return team, sees a constructive yet fragile outlook for financial markets, with opportunities arising from potential monetary policy easing balanced by persistent risks, including inflation and valuation constraints.
6 for 2026 Outlook: Global Credit
Fading cash yields could see a powerful rotation into credit markets, while AI growth financing and the emerging markets could offer new opportunities. Peter Bentley gives his 6 potential catalysts for credit investments in 2026.
The roles fixed income can play in your portfolio
Discover how fixed income investments contribute to portfolio stability through consistent income generation, attractive returns, and effective diversification strategies.
Healthcare: alive and well
The outlook for the healthcare sector remains positive despite its recent challenges, says Walter Scott client investment manager George Dent.
Capital Market Assumptions 2026
Pressure creates resilience or strain. Our CMAs provide a disciplined, long-term view to help investors build enduring portfolios.
BNY Mellon Global Credit Fund Q4 2025 update
Watch a quarterly Fund update with April LaRusse: Head of Fixed Income Specialists at Insight Investment.
Monthly Checkpoints February 2026
Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.
Building resilience in multi-asset portfolios
Diversification, disciplined risk management and a forward-looking approach to selecting investments is necessary for multi-asset portfolios in 2026, says BNY Investments Newton FutureLegacy portfolio manager, Bhavin Shah.
Capex as a catalyst
Improved business confidence and recent tax legislation are compelling corporations to reinvest their cash flows in their businesses. We believe this is a positive signal for economic growth.
Bonds Deliver Solutions for 6 Core Challenges
Explore how bonds serve as a critical tool for investors to manage risk, generate income, and maintain portfolio stability amid evolving market conditions.
The roles fixed income can play in your portfolio
Discover how fixed income investments contribute to portfolio stability through consistent income generation, attractive returns, and effective diversification strategies.
Reducing volatility with absolute return bond strategies
Absolute return bond strategies aim to deliver steadier outcomes by prioritising capital preservation and actively managing volatility. This approach offers investors a potentially more resilient way to navigate uncertain markets, writes Shaun Casey, senior portfolio manager at Insight Investment.
Vantage Point: Rates, Rules and Reality Q1 2026
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